Weekend Estimates 11/20/2009

Another week short on time, I'll jump right in. Only covering Twilight Saga: New Moon.

Twilight is a juggernaut with the females, so don't under-estimate it's potential. On the other hand it has limited appeal with males, so let's not get crazy.

My initial thought, after looking at comparative movies, was about 90 million. Due to the number of theater sellouts for Thursday and Friday, I'm going to revise my number up a bit. If it's considered good enough by it's core audience we could see a boost from multiple viewings, but nothing record breaking.

Estimate: Right around the 100 Million mark. Seeing potential for up to about 115 million.

Credits:
HSX
Box Office Mojo

Weekend Estimates for week of 11/12/2009

Not a lot of time this week, so I'm going to get straight to the point.

2012:

Estimate: 60-65 million

Pirate Radio:

Estimate: 4-5 million

Credits:
HSX
Box Office Mojo

Review: Trick 'r Treat (2008)

Finally had a chance to catch Trick 'r Treat. It plays out much like Pulp Fiction meets Twilight Zone: The Movie. A non linear collection of horror stories that all tie in together at the end.

I can't help but feel I've seen this before. An odd feeling for sure sense I know for a fact that I have not seen it. And I have to say the story would have been much better told with more character building and story line. The acting is fair, particularly Anna Paquin and Dylan Baker who both round out their perspective characters rather well despite the script. However it feels too rushed, too short and unfinished. They could have expanded on the core story line and done a much better job without the "Pulp" gimmick.

If you're a hard core horror buff, you'll want to add it to your collection as it is enjoyable if your expectation isn't high. If not, you can take a pass or catch it on Cable.

Overall Score: C+

Estimates for 11-6-2009

This week brings us an assortment of wide openers. Not all of which are very compelling.

Jim Carrey: A Christmas Carol

An animated remake of the Christmas classic. This movie has been remade numerous times over the decades, some more popular than others. Can Mr. Carrey strike gold again with a beloved classic? I don't think so. This is no Grinch. My research on other opening films around this time in November was fairly revealing of the potential: Barring a "Grinch" opening [which I don't think it can do] we're looking at less than 40 million, probably closer to mid-to-lower 30 million range.

Men Who Stare at Goats

George Clooney, Ewan McGregor, Kevin Spacey and Jeff Bridges. Nice cast and a nice change of pace for the weekend with a comedy. I expect this to strike the Box Office with the same not so hot iron as other Clooney flicks. Although, I have to admit, it looks pretty funny.

The Forth Kind

Who doesn't like a little alien abduction? Or better yet Milla Jovovich? Why didn't this open last week against This Is It, was everyone that afraid of Michael Jackson? This could be a fairly good flick, but the best weekend for it to open has passed.

The Box

Cameron Diaz in a supernatural thriller about a magical and mysterious box. Again, why didn't this open during Halloween weekend? It's best chance at maximizing potential was last week. I don't see any real compelling reason for this to do very well.

Estimates:

A Christmas Carol: +-35 Million

Men Who Stare at Goats: Sub 20 Million

Fourth Kind: Sub 10 Million

The Box: Sub 10 Million

Credits:

HSX
Box Office Mojo

Opps

I've been hit by, I've been struck by, a wrong estimate.......

Way off on Michael Jackson: This Is It

Where did things go wrong? I was struck by the hype machine & I failed to pay attention to my own mention of demographic problems. But, atleast I don't go in and edit by estimate after the fact :)

Micheal Jackson: This Is It

So, did you miss me? Didn't think so :-/

Well then, let's get down to business....

This week we only have one film to focus on.

Michael Jackson: This Is It

This is one highly anticipated movie, even though it's not really a movie. The final concert practice footage from one of the most legendary, infamous, and sometimes controversial performers of our time. But, where does that place Box Office potential? High, that's where it places it. We really only have to look at one concert theater release to get the potential for this: "Hannah Montana: Best of Both Worlds Tour".

Let's examine the potential:

Hannah posted an opening weekend of just over 31 million for a $45,561 average in 683 theaters. Now, you're probably thinking that you can place that average on and get a prediction for "Michelle Jackson: This Is It" and you would be wrong. "This Is It" is playing in 3400 theaters not 683 and Hannah had 3D.

More theaters take down the average per theater, but by how much? Let's look at "The Dark Knight", which opened in 4300+ theaters and obtained an impressive $36,283 average. Now, if you were to plug in 3400 times 36,000 you would get just north of $120 million opening gross. What is the parallel between "The Dark Knight" and "This Is It"? Heath Ledger passed away just after completion of The Dark Knight, fueling a fever for the film that drove it to break the opening weekend record. I think the passing of Michael Jackson will drive people to the theater to get as close to the experience of seeing him live in concert as they will ever get again.

However, there may be a slight demographic appeal problem with late teens as they didn't really grow up with Micheal in his prime. Early 20-somethings may also be slightly problematic as they grew up in the height of his controversy. I see no demographic issue with the 30+crowd.

Bottom Line:

"Michael Jackson: This Is It" is going to be a behemoth in the Box Office for it's genre. But demographic appeal may drag down the Box Office slightly. I don't think it's going to hit Hannah or Dark Knights Theater Average but mid to high 20,000's is reasonable.

Estimate [5 Day]: 85+ million low end, 100+ million a possibility

Credits:

The Hollywood Stock Exchange
Box Office Mojo

Comparables & Break Even for Kung Fu Panda & Zohan

Before we get in to this weeks movies, let me once again thank HSX for allowing me to take over the Sports Fund [HSX:SPORT]. This is going to be fairly challenging long term, as I'm really running out of short term big plays really quick[Where the hell is CARS2 IPO? :)]. I've found quite a few movies to play, thanks to the power of Google, so lets see how things go. If you find a play for SPORT I'm not currently holding, feel free to point it out on the Movies board.

For those wondering how to find HSX stocks using google here's a handy tip:

Just place this text in google's search box [modify intext:"" as needed]
site:hsx.com intext:"football" inurl:SYMBOL


This weeks Comparables and Break Even:

Don't Mess with the Zohan:

Tracking has this one at 30 million or less, in contrast I have the comparables average at about 40 million. I think the average of the comparables and MTC internal tracking [35 million] set a good expectation.

Estimate: 37-42 million

Kung Fu Panda:

Dreamworks animation house has had it's fair share of hits over the years, take for example the Shrek movies. But lets face it, Panda is not Shrek. I think the comparable average is a bit low and we'll see it come in about 6-10 million higher than average.

Estimate: 47-52 million

Credits:

HSX

Box Office Mojo

The Sports Fund

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian

Here's some comparables to chew on while I work up the rest of my assessment:

Block Buster Season Begins With Iron Man!

Pay attention boys and gals, this is where all the real money is made[or lost]! We have quite a few really good movies coming up pretty quickly.

This season begins with Iron Man.

In my previous post I gave some food for thought on Iron Man's comparable movies. Depending on how you cut that data you get a result that should be a good indicator of Iron Mans potential. There's two movies you can remove from that list right off the bat, Batman Begins & Superman Returns, both of which are restarts of their respective franchise. With those two removed, it brings us to a 88.88 million average opening & a 23,436 average PTA. Which is pretty realistic, but we would also need to adjust X-Men for inflation. X-Men did 54.47 opening in 2000 and ticket prices have increased about 26% from '00 to '08, so that would bring the first X-Men to 68.63 million opener and 22,688 PTA. Now we're looking at 90.65 opener average and 24,021 average PTA.

So, what about the Fantastic Four movies? Well, I think they are pretty relevant for the worksheet as the worksheet is about obtaining an average price for estimating. If you were to remove both Fantastic Four movies, then I think you would also have to remove Spider-Man 3, as Spider-Man 3 is way out of the curve, and that would bring you to about 91 million average with all 3 removed.

Also, I've seen some talk that Iron Man isn't playing well with females. The only thing I can add to that is my wife had the "ooh shiny" look in her eye after seeing the first trailer. So, it may not be as bad among females as people think [then again I'm married to one of those "Hip Chic's"...so take that FWIW]. Everything about Iron-Man says Win, Win, Win.

So here's my estimate based off of the data presented:

Iron Man: 90+ million opening weekend likely & 100+ million possible


Made of Honor: 10-15 million [sorry no data]

Credits:

Hollywood Stock Exchange

Box Office Mojo

Iron Man Comparables

This should give you something to talk about while I compile the rest of my research :)