The Gut Check

Been a topsy-turvy week after Semi-Pro took a nose dive. So lets look at this weeks wide openers.


10,000 BC

I'm long on BC. Why? Because as I see it, at current price, it only needs 36 million to break even. A total no brainer for me. An here's why: I don't feel there's any downside to holding this thing long, worst case, it's break even.

Looking through Movietickets.com, I've seen some sellouts in the LA market for Friday and it's #1 on Moviefones list by a nice margin.

Plain English: Holding BC long has almost no risk at this price in my opinion.

Prediction: 50+ million

The Bank Job

I'm short on Bank Job. Why? I don't see it doing any more that 5-6 million this weekend because of narrow appeal. Probably a good movie, but I just don't see strong interest in the U.S. market.

Predication: 5 million

College Road Trip

I'm short on Road Trip, just don't see this movie hitting big. While I can certianly see the appeal of Lawrence & Raven-Symone, I only see this movie drawing interest from 2 groups "Highschool kids with parents" & "Parents with Highschool kids". And frankly, it just doesn't look all that funny[sorry].

Prediction: 15 million