Pay attention boys and gals, this is where all the real money is made[or lost]! We have quite a few really good movies coming up pretty quickly.
This season begins with Iron Man.
In my previous post I gave some food for thought on Iron Man's comparable movies. Depending on how you cut that data you get a result that should be a good indicator of Iron Mans potential. There's two movies you can remove from that list right off the bat, Batman Begins & Superman Returns, both of which are restarts of their respective franchise. With those two removed, it brings us to a 88.88 million average opening & a 23,436 average PTA. Which is pretty realistic, but we would also need to adjust X-Men for inflation. X-Men did 54.47 opening in 2000 and ticket prices have increased about 26% from '00 to '08, so that would bring the first X-Men to 68.63 million opener and 22,688 PTA. Now we're looking at 90.65 opener average and 24,021 average PTA.
So, what about the Fantastic Four movies? Well, I think they are pretty relevant for the worksheet as the worksheet is about obtaining an average price for estimating. If you were to remove both Fantastic Four movies, then I think you would also have to remove Spider-Man 3, as Spider-Man 3 is way out of the curve, and that would bring you to about 91 million average with all 3 removed.
Also, I've seen some talk that Iron Man isn't playing well with females. The only thing I can add to that is my wife had the "ooh shiny" look in her eye after seeing the first trailer. So, it may not be as bad among females as people think [then again I'm married to one of those "Hip Chic's"...so take that FWIW]. Everything about Iron-Man says Win, Win, Win.
So here's my estimate based off of the data presented:
Iron Man: 90+ million opening weekend likely & 100+ million possible
Made of Honor: 10-15 million [sorry no data]
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