Comparable Movies & Weekend Estimates 4/10/08

This week for the comparables, I decided to go farther back..all the way to 2000. This provided a much better pool for some of the harder to compare movies. Keep in mind these are my picks, if you disagree with them, that's OK as I encourage everyone to think for them selves.

I said before that comparing movies with the same actor/director/etc. was irrelevant, but that's not always true, but it is most of the time. For example, last week I should have used Clooney movies for Leatherheads because he has a certain style. Here's another example: Judd Apatow for next weeks Forgetting Sarah Marshall.

Here's what I came up with for comparable movies [special thanks to D.Mac, Mr. Havens & zeitgeist for throwing me clues on SMPEP]




Prom Night:

Once again it was easy to find horror films to compare Prom Night with. I threw in Amityville because it was an American horror remake and the right time of year, even though it's the wrong rating.

Estimate: 16-18 million

Street Kings:

This was a little harder to find comparables for. 16 Blocks is the worst fit out of the bunch I have. One thing I noticed is that an R rating comparables actually seem to do better for this genre. This is a hard one for me to call.

Estimate: 14-16 million

Smart People:

This was the hardest one to find comparables for, so I asked on the boards and got several good picks [see previous credits]. Run, Fat Boy, Run looks like a bad comparable at first glance, but it really isn't too bad: Ensemble Cast, Rom-Com & about the same number of theaters.

Estimate: 4 million

That's all for now, thanks for coming by.


Credits:
Box Office Mojo [box office data]
Hollywood Stock Exchange