So, did you miss me? Didn't think so :-/
Well then, let's get down to business....
This week we only have one film to focus on.
Michael Jackson: This Is It
This is one highly anticipated movie, even though it's not really a movie. The final concert practice footage from one of the most legendary, infamous, and sometimes controversial performers of our time. But, where does that place Box Office potential? High, that's where it places it. We really only have to look at one concert theater release to get the potential for this: "Hannah Montana: Best of Both Worlds Tour".
Let's examine the potential:
Hannah posted an opening weekend of just over 31 million for a $45,561 average in 683 theaters. Now, you're probably thinking that you can place that average on and get a prediction for "Michelle Jackson: This Is It" and you would be wrong. "This Is It" is playing in 3400 theaters not 683 and Hannah had 3D.
More theaters take down the average per theater, but by how much? Let's look at "The Dark Knight", which opened in 4300+ theaters and obtained an impressive $36,283 average. Now, if you were to plug in 3400 times 36,000 you would get just north of $120 million opening gross. What is the parallel between "The Dark Knight" and "This Is It"? Heath Ledger passed away just after completion of The Dark Knight, fueling a fever for the film that drove it to break the opening weekend record. I think the passing of Michael Jackson will drive people to the theater to get as close to the experience of seeing him live in concert as they will ever get again.
However, there may be a slight demographic appeal problem with late teens as they didn't really grow up with Micheal in his prime. Early 20-somethings may also be slightly problematic as they grew up in the height of his controversy. I see no demographic issue with the 30+crowd.
Bottom Line:
"Michael Jackson: This Is It" is going to be a behemoth in the Box Office for it's genre. But demographic appeal may drag down the Box Office slightly. I don't think it's going to hit Hannah or Dark Knights Theater Average but mid to high 20,000's is reasonable.
Estimate [5 Day]: 85+ million low end, 100+ million a possibility
Credits:
The Hollywood Stock Exchange
Box Office Mojo
More theaters take down the average per theater, but by how much? Let's look at "The Dark Knight", which opened in 4300+ theaters and obtained an impressive $36,283 average. Now, if you were to plug in 3400 times 36,000 you would get just north of $120 million opening gross. What is the parallel between "The Dark Knight" and "This Is It"? Heath Ledger passed away just after completion of The Dark Knight, fueling a fever for the film that drove it to break the opening weekend record. I think the passing of Michael Jackson will drive people to the theater to get as close to the experience of seeing him live in concert as they will ever get again.
However, there may be a slight demographic appeal problem with late teens as they didn't really grow up with Micheal in his prime. Early 20-somethings may also be slightly problematic as they grew up in the height of his controversy. I see no demographic issue with the 30+crowd.
Bottom Line:
"Michael Jackson: This Is It" is going to be a behemoth in the Box Office for it's genre. But demographic appeal may drag down the Box Office slightly. I don't think it's going to hit Hannah or Dark Knights Theater Average but mid to high 20,000's is reasonable.
Estimate [5 Day]: 85+ million low end, 100+ million a possibility
Credits:
The Hollywood Stock Exchange
Box Office Mojo
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